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Market entry is not viable for private gambling.

1 open · 18 closed · 1 not yet assessed → 20 classes
Regulator: None — Gambling Prohibited (Ministry of Public Security / Ministry o… · Collected 25 Oct 2026 · Published 25 Oct 2026 · Changed 11 Oct 2026 PDF Compare

Can we offer our product?

Every product class, in fixed taxonomy order. The band is what you can do; where the recorded legal status says something the band does not, it is shown beside the product.

Player products

  • CasinoProhibited · Models agree
    Closed
  • PokerProhibited · Models agree
    Closed
  • BingoProhibited · Models agree
    Closed
  • LotteryState monopoly (sole exception to a general prohibition)
    Closed
  • Sports bettingState monopoly (sole exception to a general prohibition) · Contested
    Closed
  • Other event bettingProhibited · Models agree
    Closed
  • Horse and greyhound racing bettingProhibited · Models agree
    Closed
  • Esports bettingProhibited · Models agree
    Closed
  • Exchange bettingProhibited · Models agree
    Closed
  • Pool betting
    Not yet assessed
  • Virtual event bettingProhibited · Models agree
    Closed
  • Fantasy sportsProhibited · Models agree
    Closed
  • Skill gamesProhibited · Models agree
    Closed
  • Prediction marketsProhibited · Models agree
    Closed
  • SweepstakesProhibited · Models agree
    Closed
  • Free playOutside the regulatory perimeter · Contested
    Open

Supply roles

  • Software / B2BProhibited
    Closed
  • Affiliate marketingProhibited
    Closed
  • Payments for gamblingProhibited
    Closed

Settlement rail

  • Crypto gamblingProhibited
    Closed

Class-level certainty is graded for 14 of 20 classes.

Board briefing

Mainland China is a closed, hostile prohibition market with no private gambling pathway and punitive, increasingly extraterritorial enforcement.

What has changed

  • Enforcement intensified through 2024-2025: MPS dismantled 4,500+ platforms and 45 syndicates, investigated ~73,000 cross-border cases, and repatriated thousands from Cambodia and Myanmar. SPC directives demand life imprisonment in extreme cases and severing of financial networks.

What to do now

  • Decline any China-facing private gambling model. Audit all structures for residual CN exposure (traffic, payments, personnel, affiliates). Treat claimed geo-exclusion as insufficient; escalate any CN-touching counterparty to PRC counsel.

What to watch

  • Deepening ASEAN-China cooperation, further NPC amendments, POGO-displacement migration of risk, and correspondent-bank de-risking driven by CN player files.

11 answers, each dated and graded

The weather grades favourability for an operator, not legality: legality is the product table above. The left rule is our confidence: solid confirmed, dashed probable, dotted uncertain.

01 · What kind of market is this?

Overview

Unfavourable

Mainland China's gambling regime remains a comprehensive prohibition under Criminal Law Art. 303, with the two state lotteries as the sole lawful exception. This cycle's material development sits in the adjacent financial-instrument layer rather than in gambling law itself: PBOC-led Notice No.42 (Fe…

Full analysis · 106 words

Mainland China's gambling regime remains a comprehensive prohibition under Criminal Law Art. 303, with the two state lotteries as the sole lawful exception. This cycle's material development sits in the adjacent financial-instrument layer rather than in gambling law itself: PBOC-led Notice No.42 (February 2026) closes a crypto and stablecoin settlement channel that had been used to route offshore gambling wagers, while cross-border enforcement against gambling continues to escalate through coordinated action with State Councilor-level campaign reaffirmation and international law-enforcement cooperation. The state lottery system, at approximately CNY 628 billion in 2025 sales, underscores the fiscal stakes behind maintaining the state monopoly against private and offshore competition.

  • No private licensing pathway
  • Criminal liability under Art. 303
  • Accomplice liability for B2B/payments/affiliates under Art. 287-2
  • Punitive cross-border enforcement
  • Capital-chain severance by PBOC/SAFE
ConfirmedAI-generatedRead full analysis & tables →
02 · Can we get a licence?

Licensing and regulation

Unfavourable

The current operative interpretation is the 2020 SPC/SPP Interpretation (Interpretation II on Gambling Criminal Cases), which superseded the 2005 interpretation and established updated thresholds for online gambling criminalisation under Criminal Law Art. 303.

ConfirmedAI-generatedRead full analysis & tables →
03 · How hard is entry, really?

Market entry in practice

Unfavourable

Market entry is not viable for private gambling. No offshore service model can be made defensible where it serves mainland Chinese demand, because solicitation, payments and traffic reaching the mainland engage Art. 303 and accomplice liability. Reputable-operator exits and POGO contraction increase…

Full analysis · 51 words

Market entry is not viable for private gambling. No offshore service model can be made defensible where it serves mainland Chinese demand, because solicitation, payments and traffic reaching the mainland engage Art. 303 and accomplice liability. Reputable-operator exits and POGO contraction increase residual counterparty risk for any structure with CN exposure.

ConfirmedAI-generatedRead full analysis & tables →
04 · What do the licences cost?

Licence fees

Unfavourable

Not applicable. No private licensing pathway exists, so there are no application or annual licence fees for private operators. The commercially relevant concept is the cost of non-entry, exit, enforcement and payment-architecture collapse. No fee schedule is fabricated.

ConfirmedAI-generatedRead full analysis & tables →
05 · What is the tax take?

Tax

Unfavourable

Not applicable. No private gambling tax framework exists. State lotteries operate under public-welfare fund rules (Lottery Administration Regulations); proceeds fund welfare and sports development rather than a gaming-duty regime. No GGR, turnover or gaming-duty field applies to private operators.

ConfirmedAI-generatedRead full analysis & tables →
06 · Can we move player money?

Payments and banking

Unfavourable

Payment risk is central, not ancillary. PBOC, SAFE, the Ministry of Public Security and other departments coordinate to sever gambling-related financial chains; 2,800+ gambling payment platforms have been shut since 2020. Pao Fen / Dai Shou local collection networks, USDT on-ramps, mirror merchants …

Full analysis · 65 words

Payment risk is central, not ancillary. PBOC, SAFE, the Ministry of Public Security and other departments coordinate to sever gambling-related financial chains; 2,800+ gambling payment platforms have been shut since 2020. Pao Fen / Dai Shou local collection networks, USDT on-ramps, mirror merchants and underground banking are the primary architectures used to serve Chinese demand — all indefensible. No payment rail is permitted for gambling.

ConfirmedAI-generatedRead full analysis & tables →
07 · Can we advertise?

Marketing

Unfavourable

Marketing of private gambling to mainland Chinese consumers is banned and criminally exposed. Advertising assistance to gambling operations engages Art. 287-2 (assisting information-network criminal activity) alongside the Advertising Law. Chinese-language offshore marketing, sponsorship targeting C…

Full analysis · 45 words

Marketing of private gambling to mainland Chinese consumers is banned and criminally exposed. Advertising assistance to gambling operations engages Art. 287-2 (assisting information-network criminal activity) alongside the Advertising Law. Chinese-language offshore marketing, sponsorship targeting Chinese audiences, affiliate traffic and social/platform distribution all carry accomplice-liability risk.

ConfirmedAI-generatedRead full analysis & tables →
08 · What must the platform meet?

Technical compliance

Unfavourable

No technical compliance route exists for lawful China-facing private gambling. The Great Firewall provides systematic network-level interdiction. Claimed China geo-exclusion is not a defence where traffic, payments or solicitation reach mainland users.

ConfirmedAI-generatedRead full analysis & tables →
09 · Can we ship through apps and platforms?

Distribution and platforms

Unfavourable

App stores, social platforms and e-commerce marketplaces in mainland China prohibit gambling distribution; in June 2018 all online poker applications were banned and removed from app stores, with poker promotion forbidden across WeChat and Weibo. China-facing affiliate, CDN, DNS and hosting infrastr…

Full analysis · 45 words

App stores, social platforms and e-commerce marketplaces in mainland China prohibit gambling distribution; in June 2018 all online poker applications were banned and removed from app stores, with poker promotion forbidden across WeChat and Weibo. China-facing affiliate, CDN, DNS and hosting infrastructure carries accomplice-liability exposure.

ConfirmedAI-generatedRead full analysis & tables →
10 · How hard does the regulator enforce?

Enforcement

Unfavourable

Fujian provincial courts delivered first-instance verdicts on 13 October 2026 against a Myanmar-border (Kokang) crime family that ran illegal casinos and scam compounds targeting Chinese nationals. The group's leader received a death sentence, three defendants received life imprisonment, and 55 furt…

Full analysis · 150 words

Fujian provincial courts delivered first-instance verdicts on 13 October 2026 against a Myanmar-border (Kokang) crime family that ran illegal casinos and scam compounds targeting Chinese nationals. The group's leader received a death sentence, three defendants received life imprisonment, and 55 further defendants received prison terms of up to 24 years. The verdicts were reported via Xinhua through secondary press coverage (agbrief.com); no direct court document was retrieved. This action continues the multi-year Strike-Hard enforcement campaign against cross-border gambling and scam syndicates based in enabler regions along China's periphery. A capital-punishment outcome against syndicate leadership reflects continued maximum-severity enforcement under the standing sanction ceiling available to Chinese courts for organised illegal gambling and associated scam operations. The action targets unlicensed organisers operating from outside mainland China's jurisdiction but reaching Chinese nationals, rather than any licensed or quasi-licensed domestic participant, since no such licensed commercial gambling sector exists within the prohibition architecture.

ConfirmedAI-generated9 enforcement eventsRead full analysis & tables →
11 · What is coming?

Outlook

Unfavourable

Default outlook is negative for liberalisation and increasing for enforcement intensity. There is no credible consultation, pilot reform or liberalisation signal on a 12-36 month horizon. SPC directives and MPS operations point to intensification, not relaxation. State-lottery expansion (record sale…

Full analysis · 56 words

Default outlook is negative for liberalisation and increasing for enforcement intensity. There is no credible consultation, pilot reform or liberalisation signal on a 12-36 month horizon. SPC directives and MPS operations point to intensification, not relaxation. State-lottery expansion (record sales of RMB623.49bn in 2024) is the only growth signal and does not open any private pathway.

ConfirmedAI-generatedRead full analysis & tables →
Evidential record & source register 0 enforcement · 26 red flags · 12 sources · Expand full record

What gets operators fined

26 red flags (15 high, 5 medium) and 0 controls that address them.

  • high
    Cross-border gambling fund flows
    Capital outflow and money-laundering typology cited by SPC; AML Law 2025
  • high
    Chinese-language affiliate marketing
    Art. 287-2 advertising assistance liability
  • high
    Accepting USDT from Chinese users
    Crypto banned; AML and PBOC interdiction exposure
  • high
    Relying on claimed geo-exclusion as a defence
    Great Firewall makes circumvention detectable; not a defence to Art. 303
  • high
    ASEAN-China cooperation exposure
    Joint operations and life-imprisonment penalties for organisers
  • high
    Macao junket spillover
    SPC sentenced Macao-based ringleader (Wu) to 6 years for soliciting domestic residents
  • high
    Nested aggregator obscuring China exposure
    Detected and prosecuted as part of ecosystem dismantling
  • high
    App-store distribution of gambling apps
    Online poker apps banned and removed since 2018
  • high
    Interpol Red Notice / extradition exposure
    She Zhijiang-type proceedings demonstrate extradition risk
  • high
    Fiat off-ramp via underground banking
    Underground banking networks dismantled alongside gambling syndicates
  • high
    Mirror-merchant transaction structuring
    Engages AML Law 2025 and Art. 287-2
  • high
    Correspondent-bank de-risking from CN player files
    Hub-licensed operators face de-risking due to CN exposure
  • high
    Recruiting Chinese nationals for marketing/operations offshore
    DC Group case — recruitment networks dismantled
  • high
    B2B supply assuming a licensing route
    No B2B pathway; absent_no_pathway
  • high
    POGO contraction residual risk
    PH POGO ban (EO 74) displaces operators serving CN demand
  • medium
    Treating state lottery as a licensable product
    State monopoly via designated agencies only; no private/foreign access
  • medium
    VPN reliance to reach Chinese users
    Active VPN crackdown; reachability still engages liability
  • medium
    Tourism to blacklisted gambling destinations
    Outbound group-tour suspensions to listed destinations
  • medium
    Hosting/CDN/DNS infrastructure China-facing
    Domain takedown powers (CAC/MPS) and accomplice liability
  • medium
    Skin-gambling / esports-skin wagering
    Prosecuted under Art. 303 where profit-oriented
  • critical
    Assuming any private licence pathway exists
    No private framework; Art. 303 criminalises private gambling
  • critical
    Organising PRC citizens for overseas gambling
    Specifically criminalised by Amendment XI; up to 10 years
  • critical
    Operating an online gambling website reachable from China
    Treated as 'opening a gambling house' under 2005 SPC/SPP Interpretation
  • critical
    Processing CNY for gambling
    PBOC/SAFE capital-chain severance; 2,800+ payment platforms shut
  • critical
    Personnel located in Cambodia/Myanmar gambling hubs
    Repatriation operations returned thousands in 2024-2025
  • critical
    Life-imprisonment exposure for mafia-style organisation
    Yu organisation sentenced to life imprisonment

Worked scenarios

5 entry scenarios, each with the move we would make.

European sports-betting operator claiming Chinese geo-exclusion via IP blocking

If any traffic, solicitation or payments reach mainland users, Art. 303 and Art. 287-2 are engaged; the Great Firewall makes circumvention detectable and claimed geo-exclusion is not a defence. PBOC/acquirer interdiction risk is critical.

Do this: Decline unless China exposure is genuinely and verifiably zero; escalate to PRC counsel.

B2B software supplier to a platform receiving ≥30% of traffic from China

Supplying software to a gambling platform with significant China traffic engages Art. 287-2 accomplice liability for assisting information-network criminal activity.

Do this: Decline; no B2B pathway exists and accomplice exposure is direct.

Crypto gambling platform accepting USDT with known Chinese user base

Crypto is banned and USDT ramps serving Chinese demand engage Art. 303, AML Law 2025 and PBOC interdiction; underground banking links are dismantled alongside syndicates.

Do this: Decline.

Affiliate network with Chinese-language sites geo-targeted at overseas Chinese

Chinese-language marketing reaching mainland users engages Art. 287-2 advertising assistance and the Advertising Law; recruitment of Chinese nationals (DC Group case) is actively prosecuted.

Do this: Decline any China-facing affiliate activity.

Hub-jurisdiction licensed operator (Malta/Gibraltar) facing correspondent-bank de-risking due to CN player file exposure

CN player files trigger correspondent-bank de-risking and PSP deplatforming; extraterritorial and reputational risk is severe even for an operator licensed elsewhere.

Do this: Accept only with strict CN-exclusion controls and continuous monitoring; otherwise decline.

What we looked for and could not find

Confirmed absence is a finding of its own. These are the questions we searched and could not answer from a citable source, with the searches we ran. Never behind the paywall.

Operational obligations. no private framework, so no reporting/certification/RG obligations exist; section is structurally empty rather than thinly sourced.
Player protection. no private operator framework means no statutory self-exclusion/deposit-limit/reality-check regime applies to private operators.

Source register

Every source on a four-step tier scale. A claim is never shown at a stronger tier than the source it cites.

12 sources · 4 tier 1 · 3 tier 2 · 5 tier 3

No.SourceTierVerification
INST-CN-CRIMLAW303T1 of 4
INST-CN-SPC2005T1 of 4
INST-CN-SPC-DIR2024T1 of 4
INST-CN-MPS-INTLT1 of 4
INST-CN-MPS-ENF2024T2 of 4
INST-CN-LOTTERYREGT2 of 4
INST-CN-LOTTERYSALEST2 of 4
INST-CN-CRIMLAW303T3 of 4
INST-CN-SPC2005T3 of 4
INST-CN-ASEAN-COOPT3 of 4
INST-CN-MARKETSIZET3 of 4
INST-CN-TOURISMBLACKLISTT3 of 4