Jurisdictions Türkiye (Turkey)
TR

Türkiye (Turkey)

TR
✕ Red — AvoidTier 3 — Prohibited Private Market / State-Monopoly With Active Extraterritorial Criminal EnforcementUpdated 2026-07-05T01:10:00Z
Market verdict: Prohibitive — No viable private-sector entry pathway exists in Turkey; the market is a closed three-party state monopoly under an intensifying criminal-enforcement regime.
Last updated: 2026-07-05T01:10:00Z
RedBoard Briefing
2026-07-05T01:10:00Z
Turkey remains a hard-closed, state-monopoly gambling market with a sharply intensifying criminal-enforcement campaign against offshore operators and their TR-facing payment, marketing, and technology networks.
What has changed
The Presidential Action Plan (Circular 2025/18, Nov 2025), the 11th Judicial Package (Dec 2025, granting 48-hour asset/account-freeze powers), and MASAK's new TRY 200,000 bank-transfer monitoring threshold (Jan 2026) together represent the most significant enforcement escalation in years, with an explicit next phase of international cooperation naming Cyprus, Malta, Georgia, North Macedonia, and Armenia as enforcement targets.
What to do now
No private licensing pathway exists for casino, poker, or independent sports-betting operators; any TR-facing exposure — as operator, PSP, affiliate, media partner, or crypto ramp — carries acute criminal liability (up to 6 years' imprisonment) under Law 7258 Art. 5 and TCK Art. 228. Counterparties should apply enhanced geo-fencing, AML diligence on TR-linked flows, and monitor exposure to the named at-risk offshore hub jurisdictions.
What to watch
CHP's proposed unified law and new regulator ('Kumar Düzenleme ve Denetleme Kurumu'), the FATF's expected June 2026 5th-round plenary decision on Türkiye, further judicial-package amendments, and any post-election (targeted before the next general election) shift in enforcement posture.
Overall posture
Prohibitive

Turkey enforces one of the most restrictive gambling regimes in Europe/the Middle East: private casinos were banned outright in 1998, and all forms of gambling and betting outside three exclusive state channels (IDDAA sports betting, Milli Piyango lottery, TJK horse-racing) are criminal offences under Law No. 7258 and TCK Art. 228. The 2025-2026 period has brought a sharp enforcement escalation — a Presidential Action Plan, an overhauled Penal Code (11th Judicial Package), and a new MASAK bank-transfer monitoring threshold — with the government explicitly ruling out liberalisation ahead of the next general election.

RedSummary
2026-07-05T01:10:00Z

No viable private-sector entry pathway exists in Turkey; the market is a closed three-party state monopoly under an intensifying criminal-enforcement regime.

Market status
no
Overall RAG
Red
Regulatory posture
Prohibitive
Time to revenue
n/a — no viable entry
Capital req.
n/a — no viable entry
Confidence
Probable
RedMarket Opportunity
2026-07-05T01:10:00Z

Turkey's gambling market presents no legal commercial opportunity for private operators. The market is structured as a three-party exclusive state monopoly — Spor Toto Teşkilat Başkanlığı (IDDAA sports betting), Türkiye Milli Piyango İdaresi (lottery), and Türkiye Jokey Kulübü (horse-racing betting) — with all private participation criminalised under primary legislation.

· ~1 min read

No credible T1 or T2 GGR or market-size figure has been located for either the legal state-monopoly channels or the broader Turkish gambling market; this represents a structural data ceiling for this jurisdiction. The only available indirect indicators of market scale are enforcement-derived: a single December 2025 probe involved transactions assessed to exceed TL 6 billion (approximately EUR 140 million), and approximately 20,000 domain blocks are reported per month. These figures indicate a substantial unlicensed market operating in defiance of the prohibition, but they do not constitute an accessible commercial opportunity. For a private operator, the market opportunity assessment is closed.

Growth Trajectory
growing
Market Size Band
medium
Source
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RedLicensing & Regulation
2026-07-05T01:10:00Z

There is no licensing regime for private gambling operators of any kind in Turkey. The only lawful gambling activities are run as exclusive state concessions: sports betting (IDDAA) under Spor Toto Teşkilat Başkanlığı per Law 7258/Law 5738, the national lottery under Milli Piyango's authorised administrator per Decree 320, and horse-racing betting under the Turkish Jockey Club. No B2B supply licence exists for third parties.

Licensing required
no
B2B licensing
absent_no_pathway

There is no practical entry pathway for a new private operator; the only routes into the legal Turkish gambling sector are the three existing exclusive state concessions, none of which are currently open for tender.

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Regulated Activity Classes
2026-07-05T01:10:00Z
casino
prohibited — Law No. 7258 (1998 casino ban); TCK Art. 228
poker
prohibited — TCK Art. 228; Law No. 7258
betting
state_monopoly_exception_to_prohibition — Law No. 7258; Law No. 5738
skill_games
prohibited — TCK Art. 228 (no explicit skill-game carve-out located)
lottery
state_monopoly_exception_to_prohibition — Decree No. 320
software_b2b
prohibited — Law No. 7258 (no B2B pathway)
bingo
prohibited — TCK Art. 228
fantasy_sports
prohibited — TCK Art. 228 / Law 7258 (no explicit carve-out found)
esports_betting
prohibited — Law No. 7258 (unauthorised sports/competition betting)
sweepstakes
prohibited — Decree No. 320 (unless operated by Milli Piyango)
crypto_gambling
prohibited — TCK Art. 228; Law No. 7258
affiliate_marketing
prohibited — Law No. 7258 Art. 5/1-ç
payments_for_gambling
prohibited — Law No. 7258 Art. 5/1-c
Entry Pathways
2026-07-05T01:10:00Z

Turkey offers no entry pathway for private gambling operators of any product class. The only lawful gambling channels are the three exclusive state concessions established under primary legislation: Spor Toto Teşkilat Başkanlığı holds the exclusive sports-betting concession (IDDAA) under Law No. 7258 and Law No.

· ~1 min read

5738; Türkiye Milli Piyango İdaresi holds the exclusive lottery monopoly under Decree No. 320; and Türkiye Jokey Kulübü holds exclusive horse-racing betting rights under the Law on Horse Racing. No B2B or B2C licence class exists for private operators outside these three concessions — a status confirmed via primary legislation and assessed as absent with no pathway. The existing concessions are not currently open for competitive tender, and no forthcoming tender process has been documented. There is no technology-supplier or platform-services licensing route that would permit a private entity to participate in the Turkish gambling market in any capacity. The entry-pathways assessment is: closed.

Licence types
2 types
B2B licensing
2 services
Key conditions
1 conditions
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RedPlayer Protection
2026-07-05T01:10:00Z

Turkey's player-protection framework is, in practical terms, absent for the state-monopoly channels and irrelevant for private operators who have no lawful pathway. No national self-exclusion scheme, deposit-limit mechanism, or reality-check requirement has been documented for Spor Toto Teşkilat Başkanlığı, Türkiye Milli Piyango İdaresi, or Türkiye Jokey Kulübü. The age-verification standard is a general 18-plus prohibition without a specified technical method. No source describing concrete self-exclusion, deposit-limit, or reality-check mechanisms operated by the state concessionaires was located this cycle, representing a documented gap. Marketing restrictions are enforced through the criminal prohibition: advertising or encouraging participation in unauthorised betting is a criminal offence under Law No. 7258 Art. 5/1-ç, and enforcement has extended in 2026 to social-media account takedowns and action against media and advertising networks. There is no articulated marketing-to-vulnerable-persons or marketing-to-minors regulatory framework beyond the general criminal prohibition on unlicensed gambling promotion.

+1 paragraph · ~1 min read

Advertising or otherwise encouraging participation in unlicensed betting or games of chance is itself a criminal offence under Law 7258 Art. 5, punishable by 1-3 years' imprisonment and substantial judicial fines. Enforcement in 2026 has extended to media/advertising/distribution networks, with the Ministry of Trade blocking high-follower social accounts promoting illicit gambling.

Confidence
Uncertain
Traffic Light
red
Narrative
Turkey's player-protection framework is, in practical terms, absent for the state-monopoly channels and irrelevant for private operators who have no lawful pathway. No national self-exclusion scheme, deposit-limit mechanism, or reality-check requirement has been documented for Spor Toto Teşkilat Başkanlığı, Türkiye Milli Piyango İdaresi, or Türkiye Jokey Kulübü. The age-verification standard is a general 18-plus prohibition without a specified technical method. No source describing concrete self-exclusion, deposit-limit, or reality-check mechanisms operated by the state concessionaires was located this cycle, representing a documented gap. Marketing restrictions are enforced through the criminal prohibition: advertising or encouraging participation in unauthorised betting is a criminal offence under Law No. 7258 Art. 5/1-ç, and enforcement has extended in 2026 to social-media account takedowns and action against media and advertising networks. There is no articulated marketing-to-vulnerable-persons or marketing-to-minors regulatory framework beyond the general criminal prohibition on unlicensed gambling promotion.
Player Protection Marketing Vulnerable Rules
No specific marketing-to-vulnerable-persons regulatory framework exists in Turkey beyond the general criminal prohibition on advertising or encouraging participation in unauthorised betting under Law No. 7258 Art. 5/1-ç. Enforcement of this provision has extended in 2026 to social-media account takedowns by the Ministry of Trade. No dedicated vulnerable-persons marketing standard has been documented for the state concessionaires.
Player Protection Marketing Minors Rules
Turkey's age-restriction framework for gambling is a general 18-plus prohibition without a specified technical age-verification method. No dedicated marketing-to-minors standard has been documented for the state concessionaires or for the broader gambling advertising prohibition under Law No. 7258 Art. 5/1-ç. The criminal prohibition on advertising unlicensed gambling applies regardless of audience.
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RedDistribution & Platform Rules
2026-07-05T01:10:00Z

Third-party gambling apps and unlicensed betting/casino advertising are prohibited across app stores and ad platforms; enforcement has extended to social-media account takedowns by the Ministry of Trade.

Narrative
Third-party gambling apps and unlicensed betting/casino advertising are prohibited across app stores and ad platforms; enforcement has extended to social-media account takedowns by the Ministry of Trade.
Traffic Light
red
Confidence
Probable
Geo Gating Requirements
ip_based
Source
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RedEnforcement
2026-07-05T01:10:00Z

Enforcement is punitive and criminally oriented, coordinated centrally by MASAK under the 2025-2026 Presidential Action Plan and intensified by the 11th Judicial Package (approved 15 December 2025), which grants prosecutors direct powers to seize assets and freeze bank/digital-wallet accounts for up to 48 hours without prior notice. Reported activity includes ~20,000 site blocks/month, a single December 2025 probe involving TL6bn (~€140m) in transactions and 42 detainees, and 729 operations/2,996 arrests in March 2026 alone.

+1 paragraph · ~1 min read

Turkey's enforcement architecture against unlicensed gambling is multi-layered and has materially expanded this cycle. The primary criminal-prosecution basis is Law No. 7258 — a durable primary statute — which carries penalties of up to 6 years' imprisonment for enabling access from Turkey to offshore-organised betting (Art. 5/1-b) and 3 to 5 years plus a judicial fine for mediating unlicensed betting payment flows (Art. 5/1-c). The Turkish Penal Code Art. 228 — assessed as a durable statute — separately criminalises providing a venue or opportunity for gambling via information systems. ISP and domain-level blocking under Law No. 5651 — a durable statute — empowers BTK/ICTA to block gambling websites at scale, with approximately 20,000 blocks reported per month. The 11th Judicial Package (fragile instrument, approved December 2025) adds a 48-hour warrantless asset and account freeze power for prosecutors, with banks and payment service providers required to supply data within 10 days. Presidential Circular 2025/18 (fragile ministerial-level instrument) launched the 2025-2026 Action Plan as a whole-of-government coordination mandate. The enforcement-event record is substantial: 42 suspects detained in a December 2025 probe involving transactions assessed to exceed TL 6 billion; 729 operations and 2,996 arrests in March 2026; and 15 high-follower social-media accounts blocked in April 2026. Licence revocation is not applicable in the private-sector context because no private licence exists; the enforcement theory against unlicensed operators is criminal prosecution under Law No. 7258 and TCK Art. 228, payment blocking under Art. 5/1-c, and ISP blocking under Law No. 5651.

Enforcement Style
punitive
Enforcement Targeting
unlicensed
Enforcement Summary Last 12M
high
Enforcement Style
punitive
Enforcement Targeting
unlicensed
Enforcement Summary Last 12M
high
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RedExtraterritorial Reach
2026-07-05T01:10:00Z
Confidence
Probable
Traffic light
red
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AmberAML / CFT
2026-07-05T01:10:00Z

Turkey was removed from the FATF grey list on 28 June 2024, a high-confidence finding sourced from the FATF country page. The 5th-round mutual evaluation onsite visit took place in November 2025, with a plenary decision expected around June 2026. This creates a period of elevated AML-reform scrutiny in which the adequacy of Turkey's post-delisting compliance architecture — including its treatment of gambling-adjacent payment flows — will be formally assessed.

· ~1 min read

Banks, payment service providers, and digital-wallet providers are assessed as designated reporting entities under the January 2026 MASAK regulation (fragile instrument, assessed via T3 sources), with a TRY 200,000 enhanced due-diligence threshold for bank transfers. The 11th Judicial Package (fragile instrument) adds a 10-day data-provision duty for financial institutions responding to prosecutor requests. The primary AML statute, Law No. 5549, is widely cited in secondary literature but could not be independently verified via T1 retrieval this cycle, representing a documented gap. No gambling-specific cross-border capital-control instrument was identified; general foreign-exchange and customs controls apply under Decree No. 32 and Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey frameworks, including a EUR 10,000-plus cash declaration requirement. The practical AML burden for any entity with Turkish gambling-adjacent exposure is dominated by criminal-facilitation risk under Law No. 7258 Art. 5/1-c rather than by a licensed-operator compliance framework.

Aml Cft Obligations Band
high
Confidence
Probable
Traffic Light
amber
Narrative
Turkey was removed from the FATF grey list on 28 June 2024, a high-confidence finding sourced from the FATF country page. The 5th-round mutual evaluation onsite visit took place in November 2025, with a plenary decision expected around June 2026. This creates a period of elevated AML-reform scrutiny in which the adequacy of Turkey's post-delisting compliance architecture — including its treatment of gambling-adjacent payment flows — will be formally assessed. Banks, payment service providers, and digital-wallet providers are assessed as designated reporting entities under the January 2026 MASAK regulation (fragile instrument, assessed via T3 sources), with a TRY 200,000 enhanced due-diligence threshold for bank transfers. The 11th Judicial Package (fragile instrument) adds a 10-day data-provision duty for financial institutions responding to prosecutor requests. The primary AML statute, Law No. 5549, is widely cited in secondary literature but could not be independently verified via T1 retrieval this cycle, representing a documented gap. No gambling-specific cross-border capital-control instrument was identified; general foreign-exchange and customs controls apply under Decree No. 32 and Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey frameworks, including a EUR 10,000-plus cash declaration requirement. The practical AML burden for any entity with Turkish gambling-adjacent exposure is dominated by criminal-facilitation risk under Law No. 7258 Art. 5/1-c rather than by a licensed-operator compliance framework.
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RedTechnical Compliance
2026-07-05T01:10:00Z

ISP/domain-level blocking (BTK/ICTA) is systematic, with government reporting of roughly 20,000 gambling-site blocks per month; Milli Piyango has separately reported 239,000 violating domains to MASAK. No technical-standards regime exists for a private licensed sector because none exists.

Narrative
ISP/domain-level blocking (BTK/ICTA) is systematic, with government reporting of roughly 20,000 gambling-site blocks per month; Milli Piyango has separately reported 239,000 violating domains to MASAK. No technical-standards regime exists for a private licensed sector because none exists.
Traffic Light
red
Confidence
Probable
Game Approval Process
pre_launch_approval
Data Localisation
not_yet_assessed
Hosting Requirements
not_yet_assessed
Source
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RedOperational Obligations
2026-07-05T01:10:00Z

Operational obligations in Turkey's gambling framework are defined almost entirely by the prohibition and its enforcement mechanisms rather than by a licensed-operator compliance regime. For the state concessionaires, no published technical-certification or responsible-gambling operational requirements were located this cycle, representing a documented gap.

· ~1 min read

The materially new obligations this cycle are financial-reporting in nature: the MASAK enhanced due-diligence threshold of TRY 200,000 for bank transfers (effective January 2026, fragile regulatory instrument) requires banks, payment service providers, and digital-wallet providers — now designated reporting entities — to collect detailed customer information on qualifying transfers. The 11th Judicial Package (fragile instrument, assessed via T2 sources) separately requires banks and payment processors to supply data to prosecutors or courts within 10 days of a request. These obligations fall on financial intermediaries rather than on gambling operators directly, reflecting the enforcement architecture's focus on choking off payment flows to unlicensed activity rather than regulating a licensed private sector.

Confidence
Uncertain
Traffic Light
red
Narrative
Operational obligations in Turkey's gambling framework are defined almost entirely by the prohibition and its enforcement mechanisms rather than by a licensed-operator compliance regime. For the state concessionaires, no published technical-certification or responsible-gambling operational requirements were located this cycle, representing a documented gap. The materially new obligations this cycle are financial-reporting in nature: the MASAK enhanced due-diligence threshold of TRY 200,000 for bank transfers (effective January 2026, fragile regulatory instrument) requires banks, payment service providers, and digital-wallet providers — now designated reporting entities — to collect detailed customer information on qualifying transfers. The 11th Judicial Package (fragile instrument, assessed via T2 sources) separately requires banks and payment processors to supply data to prosecutors or courts within 10 days of a request. These obligations fall on financial intermediaries rather than on gambling operators directly, reflecting the enforcement architecture's focus on choking off payment flows to unlicensed activity rather than regulating a licensed private sector.
AmberCost to Operate
2026-07-05T01:10:00Z

The statutory tax framework applicable to Turkey's state-monopoly gambling channels is confirmed via T2 specialist legal sources as a durable instrument: the Law on Taxes, Funds and Public Charges Levied on Games of Luck sets rates of 10 percent on lottery and games-of-luck revenue, 5 percent on sports-betting (IDDAA) revenue, and 7 percent on horse-racing betting revenue, all assessed monthly on revenue. These rates apply exclusively to the three state concessionaires; no private-sector tax liability arises because no private operator is permitted. Deduction rules and effective-rate detail were not locatable this cycle, representing a documented gap. No published fee or guarantee schedule exists for private applicants. The MASAK TRY 200,000 enhanced due-diligence threshold (effective January 2026, fragile regulatory instrument) and the 11th Judicial Package's 10-day data-provision duty for banks and payment service providers represent the operative compliance cost for any entity handling gambling-adjacent flows — framed not as a licensing overhead but as a criminal-exposure parameter.

+2 paragraphs · ~1 min read

Legal gambling revenues are taxed under the Law on Taxes, Funds and Public Charges Levied on Games of Luck: a monthly 5% tax on Sports (IDDAA) betting revenue, 7% on horse-racing betting revenue, and 10% on games-of-luck (lottery/instant-win) revenue.

No fee schedule exists for a private-sector applicant because no such pathway exists. Fee/guarantee data for the exclusive state concessions themselves (IDDAA, Milli Piyango) was not locatable via secondary sources this run.

Headline Rate Pct
10
Tax Basis
GGR
Confidence
Probable
Traffic Light
amber
Narrative
The statutory tax framework applicable to Turkey's state-monopoly gambling channels is confirmed via T2 specialist legal sources as a durable instrument: the Law on Taxes, Funds and Public Charges Levied on Games of Luck sets rates of 10 percent on lottery and games-of-luck revenue, 5 percent on sports-betting (IDDAA) revenue, and 7 percent on horse-racing betting revenue, all assessed monthly on revenue. These rates apply exclusively to the three state concessionaires; no private-sector tax liability arises because no private operator is permitted. Deduction rules and effective-rate detail were not locatable this cycle, representing a documented gap. No published fee or guarantee schedule exists for private applicants. The MASAK TRY 200,000 enhanced due-diligence threshold (effective January 2026, fragile regulatory instrument) and the 11th Judicial Package's 10-day data-provision duty for banks and payment service providers represent the operative compliance cost for any entity handling gambling-adjacent flows — framed not as a licensing overhead but as a criminal-exposure parameter.
RedPayments & Money Flow
2026-07-05T01:10:00Z

Turkey's payments framework for gambling is defined by criminal prohibition rather than by a regulated payment-channel regime. Mediating money transfers connected to unlicensed betting is a standalone criminal offence under Law No. 7258 Art. 5/1-c — a durable primary statute — carrying 3 to 5 years' imprisonment plus a judicial fine. This provision applies to any payment intermediary handling flows linked to unlicensed gambling, creating direct criminal exposure for banks, payment service providers, and digital-wallet operators. The MASAK enhanced due-diligence threshold of TRY 200,000 for bank transfers (effective January 2026, fragile regulatory instrument assessed via T3 sources) adds a systematic monitoring layer. The 11th Judicial Package (fragile instrument) requires banks and payment processors to supply data to prosecutors within 10 days. General foreign-exchange controls apply under Decree No. 32 and Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey frameworks, including a EUR 10,000-plus cash declaration requirement for cross-border movements, but no gambling-specific cross-border capital-control instrument was identified this cycle. The banking-risk classification for gambling-linked flows has been assessed as escalating to critical this cycle.

+1 paragraph · ~1 min read

Banks and payment/e-wallet providers face mandatory enhanced due diligence on transfers of TRY 200,000 or more (effective January 2026) and must supply prosecutor/court data within 10 days under the 11th Judicial Package. Major banks (Ziraat Bankası, Türkiye İş, Garanti BBVA) have begun issuing direct customer warnings on gambling-linked transactions.

Confidence
Probable
Traffic Light
red
Banking Risk
critical
Narrative
Turkey's payments framework for gambling is defined by criminal prohibition rather than by a regulated payment-channel regime. Mediating money transfers connected to unlicensed betting is a standalone criminal offence under Law No. 7258 Art. 5/1-c — a durable primary statute — carrying 3 to 5 years' imprisonment plus a judicial fine. This provision applies to any payment intermediary handling flows linked to unlicensed gambling, creating direct criminal exposure for banks, payment service providers, and digital-wallet operators. The MASAK enhanced due-diligence threshold of TRY 200,000 for bank transfers (effective January 2026, fragile regulatory instrument assessed via T3 sources) adds a systematic monitoring layer. The 11th Judicial Package (fragile instrument) requires banks and payment processors to supply data to prosecutors within 10 days. General foreign-exchange controls apply under Decree No. 32 and Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey frameworks, including a EUR 10,000-plus cash declaration requirement for cross-border movements, but no gambling-specific cross-border capital-control instrument was identified this cycle. The banking-risk classification for gambling-linked flows has been assessed as escalating to critical this cycle.
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RedCompetitive Landscape
2026-07-05T01:10:00Z

Turkey's gambling market is a confirmed three-party exclusive state monopoly. Spor Toto Teşkilat Başkanlığı (IDDAA), Türkiye Milli Piyango İdaresi, and Türkiye Jokey Kulübü are the only lawful operators, each holding exclusive rights under primary legislation. No private licensed-operator register exists, and no unlicensed market-share estimate has been published by any named regulator — this represents a structural data ceiling for this jurisdiction.

· ~1 min read

The only indirect indicators of unlicensed market scale are enforcement-derived: a single December 2025 probe involved transactions assessed to exceed TL 6 billion, and approximately 20,000 domain blocks are reported per month, suggesting a substantial unlicensed sector operating in defiance of the prohibition. The competitive landscape for private operators is therefore not a question of market share or competitive intensity but of criminal exposure. The market concentration classification is monopoly.

Licensed Operator Count
3
Market Concentration
monopoly
Source
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RedReform Horizon
2026-07-05T01:10:00Z

The government has explicitly ruled out liberalisation, framing eradication of illegal gambling as a matter of national security ahead of the next general election. The only liberalising-direction proposal in public circulation is the opposition CHP's plan for a unified law and dedicated regulator, which has not been tabled as government legislation.

Reform Stage
enacted_in_force
Regulatory Direction
tightening
Reform Horizon Scenario Outlook
The base scenario for Turkey's reform horizon is continued tightening through 2026 and into the next electoral cycle. The Presidential Action Plan (2025-2026) is in force, the 11th Judicial Package has expanded prosecutorial powers, and the government has assessed as explicitly ruling out liberalisation ahead of the next general election. The adverse scenario is an acceleration of cross-border enforcement diplomacy: if the low-confidence signals of diplomatic pressure on Cyprus, Malta, and Georgia are corroborated and formalise into cooperation agreements or enforcement actions against offshore-licensed operators, the risk profile for any operator with Turkish-resident player exposure would deteriorate materially. The favourable scenario is a post-election policy shift in which a new government — potentially influenced by the CHP's opposition reform proposal for a unified gambling law and a dedicated regulator — initiates a liberalisation process; this scenario carries low confidence and no near-term trigger. The FATF 5th-round plenary decision (expected June 2026) is the single most consequential near-term event for the AML dimension of the reform picture.
Traffic Light
red
Confidence
Probable
Outlook Status
negative
Reform Stage
in_force
Source
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