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title: "Outlook & Reform across all jurisdictions — Gambling Regulatory Intelligence · Advennt"
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# Outlook & Reform across all jurisdictions — Gambling Regulatory Intelligence · Advennt

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# Outlook & Reform

Pending bills, consultations, sunset dates and regulatory-trajectory signals.

Flags

196

Jurisdictions

91

Read order

Theme-major

28 further jurisdictions with flags in this theme are in expert review and not shown until published.

## Cross-jurisdiction posture cluster

196 flags across 91 jurisdictions. Posture mass: Rules 32 · Risks 50 · Reality 114.

[🇲🇾 Malaysia 3 ⚠](/jurisdictions/malaysia/)[North Carolina — State 5](/jurisdictions/north-carolina/)[🇺🇾 Uruguay 5](/jurisdictions/uruguay/)[🇩🇴 Dominican Republic 4](/jurisdictions/dominican-republic/)[🇰🇪 Kenya 4](/jurisdictions/kenya/)[🇲🇴 Macau SAR (Macau Special Administrative Region, China) 4](/jurisdictions/macau/)

## Worked examples

Each links back to the full jurisdiction page — the theme view is a projection of those country ledgers.

[🇲🇾 Malaysia →](/jurisdictions/malaysia/) No domestic licensing proposed under any draft

Market opening is not on the policy table; entry remains illegal indefinitely.

3 outlook & reform flags on this jurisdiction · see full country page

[North Carolina — State →](/jurisdictions/north-carolina/) No iGaming/poker pathway

Caps product diversification to sports wagering only.

5 outlook & reform flags on this jurisdiction · see full country page

[🇺🇾 Uruguay →](/jurisdictions/uruguay/) Reform bill could criminalise unauthorised online operation

Carballo bill would make operating without authorisation a criminal offence.

5 outlook & reform flags on this jurisdiction · see full country page

## Rules · Risks · Reality across the cohort

Lens · which facet of each jurisdiction’s flags:

All Rules Risks Reality

Showing all facets.

[🇲🇾 Malaysia](/jurisdictions/malaysia/) Critical

No domestic licensing proposed under any draft

Market opening is not on the policy table; entry remains illegal indefinitely.

[Arizona — State](/jurisdictions/arizona/) High

Assuming tax stability

FY2027 budget proposes a sharp tiered increase.

[🇧🇩 Bangladesh](/jurisdictions/bangladesh/) High

Reform direction is tightening (1867 Act replacement)

Planned statute would assert jurisdiction over foreign-hosted platforms.

[🇧🇪 Belgium](/jurisdictions/belgium/) High

Tightening policy direction

Continued consumer-protection ratchet expected.

[🇧🇷 Brazil](/jurisdictions/brazil/) High

Fiscal-pressure-driven instability

Tax regime not yet stable; model both scenarios.

[🇰🇭 Cambodia](/jurisdictions/cambodia/) High

Reliance on stable FATF status

Re-listing risk flagged by NBC in 2026.

[🇰🇭 Cambodia](/jurisdictions/cambodia/) High

Reliance on Chinese player demand

Demand base dismantled by PRC enforcement.

[🇨🇲 Cameroon](/jurisdictions/cameroon/) High

Feb 2025 ministerial deposit ban (reversed)

Demonstrates sudden ad-hoc ministerial intervention capacity.

[Colorado — State](/jurisdictions/colorado/) High

Sub-scale operator economics

Around seven platforms exited in 2024 amid margin pressure.

[🇨🇷 Costa Rica](/jurisdictions/costa-rica/) High

Long-term reliance on hub model

Model viability declining vs regulated alternatives.

[🇨🇷 Costa Rica](/jurisdictions/costa-rica/) High

No migration plan to regulated licence

Operators should plan migration within 12–24 months.

[🇭🇷 Croatia](/jurisdictions/croatia/) High

2026 tightening cycle

Rising fees, taxes and advertising limits erode margins.

[🇩🇪 Germany](/jurisdictions/germany/) High

Low channelisation (~35%)

Most demand leaks offshore, undermining the licensed market.

[🇩🇪 Germany](/jurisdictions/germany/) High

Operator revenue decline (bet-at-home -28%)

Major licensed operators reporting material German revenue declines attributed to offshore migration.

[Illinois — State](/jurisdictions/illinois/) High

Tightening tax trajectory

Three successive tax increases (2024, 2025, 2026); reduction unlikely.

[🇮🇩 Indonesia](/jurisdictions/indonesia/) High

Tightening regulatory direction

No liberalisation prospect; further restrictions planned.

[🇮🇩 Indonesia](/jurisdictions/indonesia/) High

Aceh syariah penalties (public flogging)

Heightened penalties in Aceh province.

[🇰🇪 Kenya](/jurisdictions/kenya/) High

Repeal of Cap.131 mid-cycle

Legal basis for current licences in transitional flux.

[🇲🇾 Malaysia](/jurisdictions/malaysia/) High

Reform raises penalties to RM1m operators / RM100k players

Forthcoming bill increases downside materially.

[🇲🇾 Malaysia](/jurisdictions/malaysia/) High

Reform grants MCMC/DPP bank-transaction-blocking powers

Payment interdiction will gain explicit statutory footing.

[🇲🇹 Malta](/jurisdictions/malta/) High

CJEU referral uncertainty

Material binary outcome risk to licence model.

[Massachusetts — State](/jurisdictions/massachusetts/) High

S 302 in-play/prop bet ban

Would remove key revenue product categories if enacted.

[Montana](/jurisdictions/montana/) High

Unresolved federal preemption litigation over CFTC-regulated prediction markets vs. SB 555

Outcome could either validate Montana's enforcement model nationally or force a full re-examination of SB 555's scope.

[🇲🇲 Myanmar](/jurisdictions/myanmar/) High

June 2026 FATF countermeasure escalation

Potential transaction prohibition.

[🇺🇸 New York — State](/jurisdictions/new-york/) High

In-play wagering prohibition bill (AB9343)

Could remove a major revenue category.

[🇳🇿 New Zealand](/jurisdictions/new-zealand/) High

Failure to exit if unlicensed by the deadline

Unlicensed operators must exit the NZ market by as early as 1 July 2026.

[🇳🇿 New Zealand](/jurisdictions/new-zealand/) High

Mis-timing market entry around auction window

EOI expected March/April 2026; missing the window forecloses entry.

[Oklahoma](/jurisdictions/oklahoma/) High

Sports-betting authorization has failed in the legislature for eight consecutive years despite tribal/NBA-franchise consensus in 2026

Signals persistent, structural blockage rather than a near-term resolution

[🇵🇭 Philippines](/jurisdictions/philippines/) High

Pending outright-ban bills

Congressional ban proposals create market-exit tail risk.

[Rhode Island — State](/jurisdictions/rhode-island/) High

Model unlikely to fundamentally change

Closed structure structurally entrenched.

[🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia](/jurisdictions/saudi-arabia/) High

Assuming Vision 2030 will open gambling

Vision 2030 explicitly excludes gambling; 'gaming'/esports is skill-based and distinct.

[🇷🇸 Serbia](/jurisdictions/serbia/) High

Underage-gambling exposure

2025 presidential sweep and political sensitivity heighten scrutiny.

[🇿🇦 South Africa](/jurisdictions/south-africa/) High

Relying on imminent online-casino legalisation

Reform stalled ~20 years; high political risk

[🇱🇰 Sri Lanka](/jurisdictions/sri-lanka/) High

Provisional-registration casinos not transitioning to GRA

Legacy casinos must transition into GRA licensing/compliance.

[🇹🇭 Thailand](/jurisdictions/thailand/) High

EC bill withdrawn and Senate-rejected

No reliable timeline for legalisation; high political volatility.

[🇹🇳 Tunisia](/jurisdictions/tunisia/) High

Reform direction is tightening

No liberalisation prospect; suppression risk rising

[🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates — federal jurisdiction (GCGRA framework)](/jurisdictions/united-arab-emirates/) High

Relying on civil-code change as legalisation

Common misreading — the change is transitional, not decriminalising.

[🇺🇸 United States (Federal Layer)](/jurisdictions/united-states/) High

Relying on Wire Act narrowness nationally

Only First and Fifth Circuits bind; a contrary ruling could change exposure.

SRC-US-002

[🇺🇾 Uruguay](/jurisdictions/uruguay/) High

Reform bill could criminalise unauthorised online operation

Carballo bill would make operating without authorisation a criminal offence.

[🇻🇪 Venezuela](/jurisdictions/venezuela/) High

Hyperinflation and Bolívar collapse

Local currency has no functional value; nominal figures meaningless.

[🇻🇪 Venezuela](/jurisdictions/venezuela/) High

Casino sector subject to abrupt political closure (2011 precedent)

Capital at risk from sudden state action.

[Washington (State)](/jurisdictions/washington/) High

Relying on federal-preemption theory (Kalshi/Robinhood posture) to justify WA market entry

Litigation outcomes are split across circuits and unresolved in WA specifically.

[🇿🇲 Zambia](/jurisdictions/zambia/) High

Operator exits (BetLion, Betway, betPawa)

Demonstrates real-world margin unviability under the new fiscal regime.

[🇿🇲 Zambia](/jurisdictions/zambia/) High

History of abrupt levy changes

Fiscal unpredictability is a recurring market feature.

[Alabama](/jurisdictions/alabama/) Medium

2026 session gambling bills died without a floor vote

Signals continued multi-year regulatory stasis; operators should not assume near-term legalization.

[Alberta — Canada (province)](/jurisdictions/alberta/) Medium

Poker liquidity assumption

Cross-border poker pooling depends on a pending Supreme Court decision; launch may be Alberta-fenced.

[Alberta — Canada (province)](/jurisdictions/alberta/) Medium

Reliance on unpublished AiGC agreement terms

Final AiGC operating agreement and policies were not yet published at research date.

[🇩🇿 Algeria](/jurisdictions/algeria/) Medium

No reforms contemplated

No liberalisation horizon; prohibition entrenched.

[🇦🇷 Argentina](/jurisdictions/argentina/) Medium

Ignoring federal reform volatility under Milei

Deregulatory agenda plus advertising-ban bills create policy uncertainty.

[Asia-Pacific](/jurisdictions/asia-pacific/) Medium

Thailand legalisation bill still in draft

Premature market entry before enactment carries full prohibition-era criminal exposure

[🇦🇺 Australia](/jurisdictions/australia/) Medium

Reliance on advertising for acquisition

Potential blanket TV ban under live Labor proposals.

[🇦🇹 Austria](/jurisdictions/austria/) Medium

Reform timing uncertain; possible 1-year extension to 2028

Entry planning cannot rely on a firm market-opening date.

[🇦🇹 Austria](/jurisdictions/austria/) Medium

Finance Minister signals intent to retain monopoly

Liberalisation is not guaranteed despite reform draft.

[🇧🇩 Bangladesh](/jurisdictions/bangladesh/) Medium

OIC member, ~90% Muslim-majority

Liberalisation politically near-impossible for foreseeable horizon.

[🇧🇩 Bangladesh](/jurisdictions/bangladesh/) Medium

Election-betting platforms targeting BD polls

Heightened scrutiny period; political-event betting flagged as illegal.

[🇧🇷 Brazil](/jurisdictions/brazil/) Medium

ADPF 1212 constitutional challenge

Municipal-betting legal uncertainty before STF.

[British Columbia — Canada (province)](/jurisdictions/british-columbia/) Medium

Assuming BC will imminently open like Ontario/Alberta

Ministry confirmed no liberalisation effort; 3-5 year horizon.

[British Columbia — Canada (province)](/jurisdictions/british-columbia/) Medium

Mistaking IGCO creation for liberalisation

IGCO strengthens the monopoly's governance, not market opening.

[🇺🇸 California](/jurisdictions/california/) Medium

Relying on TPPP-facilitated cardroom blackjack continuing unchanged

Underlying regulations were only enjoined/voided at trial-court level; appellate reversal could revive restrictions with short compliance windows.

[🇰🇭 Cambodia](/jurisdictions/cambodia/) Medium

Assuming liberalising trajectory

Direction is tightening, not opening.

[🇨🇲 Cameroon](/jurisdictions/cameroon/) Medium

CEMAC AML obligations overlay

Regional Regulation 01/03 imposes additional KYC/STR burden.

[Colorado — State](/jurisdictions/colorado/) Medium

Reliance on Colorado-only scale

Market is mid-tier and consolidated; standalone CO scale is challenging.

[Colorado — State](/jurisdictions/colorado/) Medium

Expecting iGaming via legislation

iGaming likely requires a voter ballot measure — politically difficult.

[🇨🇷 Costa Rica](/jurisdictions/costa-rica/) Medium

Ignoring reform binary risk

Future CR framework could impose tax/licensing or tighten prohibition.

[🇭🇷 Croatia](/jurisdictions/croatia/) Medium

Reform stage uncertain

Final amendment shape unknown.

[Delaware — State](/jurisdictions/delaware/) Medium

HB 365 multi-operator uncertainty

Reform direction unclear; could disrupt or open the market.

[Delaware — State](/jurisdictions/delaware/) Medium

Low-growth historical-artefact market

Structurally constrained growth ceiling.

[🇩🇴 Dominican Republic](/jurisdictions/dominican-republic/) Medium

Regulator transition (DCJA→DGJA)

Licence-issuing authority and conditions may change mid-cycle.

[🇩🇴 Dominican Republic](/jurisdictions/dominican-republic/) Medium

Lotería Nacional consolidation proposals

Possible centralisation of all gaming under Lottery body.

[🇩🇴 Dominican Republic](/jurisdictions/dominican-republic/) Medium

Decreto 197-26 annulled Decreto 295-22

Prior regularisation arrangements voided; re-papering required.

[🇪🇨 Ecuador](/jurisdictions/ecuador/) Medium

Casino re-legalisation uncertainty

Constitutional Court repeatedly rejects referendum question.

[🇪🇨 Ecuador](/jurisdictions/ecuador/) Medium

Political/security instability

Repeated disruption of legislative gambling agenda.

[🇫🇷 France](/jurisdictions/france/) Medium

Betting on imminent online casino legalisation

Amendment withdrawn Oct 2024; outcome uncertain.

[🇫🇷 France](/jurisdictions/france/) Medium

Mispricing 55.6% proposed casino tax

Proposed online-casino rate is among highest in Europe.

[🇩🇪 Germany](/jurisdictions/germany/) Medium

GlüStV evaluation due 2028

Framework under review; rules may change materially.

[🇬🇭 Ghana](/jurisdictions/ghana/) Medium

New Gaming Act contemplated

Framework-replacement uncertainty.

[🇬🇷 Greece](/jurisdictions/greece/) Medium

Interventionist 2026 enforcement posture

Tightening trajectory.

[🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR](/jurisdictions/hong-kong/) Medium

Relying on basketball-betting expansion as an entry route

Any expansion runs through HKJC monopoly, not private operators

[🇮🇸 Iceland](/jurisdictions/iceland/) Medium

Reform direction uncertain (liberalise vs tighten)

Strategic planning risk for any prospective entrant.

[🇮🇸 Iceland](/jurisdictions/iceland/) Medium

Reform tied to political milestone (Althingi)

Timing is unpredictable and politically contingent.

[🇮🇸 Iceland](/jurisdictions/iceland/) Medium

Public-health framing dominates reform debate

Reform may tighten rather than open the market.

[Illinois — State](/jurisdictions/illinois/) Medium

iGaming bill vs VGT lobby

HB4797 faces strong opposition from the $3bn+ VGT lobby.

[Illinois — State](/jurisdictions/illinois/) Medium

Sweepstakes ban bill SB1705

If passed, would criminalise sweepstakes and remove ignore-C&D strategy.

[Indiana — State](/jurisdictions/indiana/) Medium

Planning iGaming launch assuming imminent legalisation

iGaming repeatedly blocked; no near-term pathway.

[🇮🇩 Indonesia](/jurisdictions/indonesia/) Medium

KUHP Nasional commencement

Updated criminal code maintains prohibition with revised penalties.

[🇯🇵 Japan](/jurisdictions/japan/) Medium

Relying on ISP-blocking absence to operate

MIC is developing ISP-blocking obligations; the regulatory window is closing.

[🇰🇿 Kazakhstan](/jurisdictions/kazakhstan/) Medium

Assuming online casino liberalisation is imminent

No repeal of online casino prohibition is signalled.

[Kentucky](/jurisdictions/kentucky/) Medium

HB 904 bans licensed sportsbooks from contracting with prediction markets, effective 2026-07-15

Existing commercial arrangements between licensed operators and prediction-market platforms must be unwound before the effective date.

[🇰🇪 Kenya](/jurisdictions/kenya/) Medium

New statute (Gambling Control Act 2025) regulations undrafted

Compliance obligations not yet fully specified.

[🇰🇪 Kenya](/jurisdictions/kenya/) Medium

Gambling politically sensitive (social/religious pressure)

Reform direction can shift abruptly.

[🇱🇹 Lithuania](/jurisdictions/lithuania/) Medium

Tightening regulatory direction

Further restrictions likely; planning uncertainty.

[🇲🇴 Macau SAR (Macau Special Administrative Region, China)](/jurisdictions/macau/) Medium

Three-year concession review pending

Possible mid-term policy adjustments

[🇲🇴 Macau SAR (Macau Special Administrative Region, China)](/jurisdictions/macau/) Medium

Satellite-casino transition

Structural change to property ownership model

[Maine](/jurisdictions/maine/) Medium

Threatened people's-veto ballot challenge to LD 1164

Could delay or overturn iGaming legalisation until late 2026 or beyond, creating material timing risk for entrants

[Maryland — State](/jurisdictions/maryland/) Medium

iGaming requires referendum; 2026 effort died

No near-term online casino upside; structural barrier.

[Massachusetts — State](/jurisdictions/massachusetts/) Medium

S 302 wager caps ($1,000/day, $10,000/month)

Affordability-triggered caps would constrain high-value players.

[🇲🇽 Mexico](/jurisdictions/mexico/) Medium

Replacement gaming law uncertain (review to Aug 2027)

Regulatory direction unresolved before/after World Cup.

[🇲🇽 Mexico](/jurisdictions/mexico/) Medium

Estimated MXN 12bn revenue loss risk from tax hike

Suggests Laffer-curve overreach and instability.

[🇲🇽 Mexico](/jurisdictions/mexico/) Medium

Possible new regulator (Instituto Nacional)

Regulator transition risk.

[Minnesota](/jurisdictions/minnesota/) Medium

Sports-wagering legislation has failed in five consecutive sessions (2019, 2023, 2024, 2025, and stalled again in 2026) due to tribal/racetrack disagreement.

Any market-entry timeline assumption should not presume near-term legalization.

[Missouri](/jurisdictions/missouri/) Medium

Secretary of State exercised veto-like rejection of MGC emergency rules in Feb 2025

Demonstrates a live inter-branch check on MGC rulemaking that can delay implementation of future rule changes.

[Montana](/jurisdictions/montana/) Medium

Tavern Association of Montana lobbying power blocking mobile/online liberalization

Structural political blocker likely to persist regardless of national trends toward mobile sportsbook expansion.

[🇲🇦 Morocco](/jurisdictions/morocco/) Medium

No imminent liberalisation

Stable closed market; no entry window.

[🇳🇵 Nepal](/jurisdictions/nepal/) Medium

Reliance on stable casino ownership rules

Integrated Tourism Bill would cap foreign ownership at 49%.

[🇳🇵 Nepal](/jurisdictions/nepal/) Medium

Border-area casino siting

Proposed 5 km minimum border distance.

[🇳🇵 Nepal](/jurisdictions/nepal/) Medium

Political instability affecting reform continuity

Government transition disrupted FATF action-plan progress.

[Nevada — State](/jurisdictions/nevada/) Medium

Business model dependent on remote registration reform

Analysts deem in-person rule unlikely to change.

[Nevada — State](/jurisdictions/nevada/) Medium

Underestimating licensing timeline

Full NGCB investigation takes 12-24+ months.

[New Brunswick (Canada)](/jurisdictions/new-brunswick/) Medium

Assuming imminent market liberalisation

No NB-specific reform bill is active.

[🇺🇸 New York — State](/jurisdictions/new-york/) Medium

NYC commercial casino siting uncertainty

Timeline and community opposition risk.

[🇺🇸 New York — State](/jurisdictions/new-york/) Medium

iGaming legalisation repeatedly stalled

Upside is uncertain and politically contingent.

[🇳🇬 Nigeria](/jurisdictions/nigeria/) Medium

Long-term capex without recentralisation hedge

Central Gaming Bill recentralisation risk persists

SRC-NG-007

[North Carolina — State](/jurisdictions/north-carolina/) Medium

No iGaming/poker pathway

Caps product diversification to sports wagering only.

[North Dakota](/jurisdictions/north-dakota/) Medium

Assuming imminent legalization of statewide mobile sports betting

HCR 3002 was decisively rejected 70-24 in the House in early 2026; a constitutional amendment requiring voter approval is a multi-year, high-uncertainty pathway

[Ohio — State](/jurisdictions/ohio/) Medium

SB 199 handle-tax model

Would tax handle in addition to GGR — materially raises effective burden if enacted.

[🇵🇭 Philippines](/jurisdictions/philippines/) Medium

Full-day ad ban risk

Under study by PAGCOR.

[Quebec — Canada (province)](/jurisdictions/quebec/) Medium

Government committed to monopoly

Reform timeline is uncertain despite lobbying.

[Quebec — Canada (province)](/jurisdictions/quebec/) Medium

October 2026 election

Election outcome may shift gaming policy.

[Rhode Island — State](/jurisdictions/rhode-island/) Medium

Competitive bills held for study

No near-term market opening expected in 2026.

[Rhode Island — State](/jurisdictions/rhode-island/) Medium

Lottery acts as operator and regulator

Conflict-of-role; Lottery's interests dominate.

[🇷🇼 Rwanda](/jurisdictions/rwanda/) Medium

Revenue-extraction policy signal

High tax signals fiscal priority over market development.

[🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia](/jurisdictions/saudi-arabia/) Medium

Relying on 'reform' signals

Direction is tightening; 2024 fine increase signals intensification.

[🇸🇳 Senegal](/jurisdictions/senegal/) Medium

betPawa market exit

Demonstrates commercial unsustainability under current tax/commission structure.

[🇸🇳 Senegal](/jurisdictions/senegal/) Medium

Fiscal pressure under Senegal 2050 plan

Further tax increases possible to support debt reduction targets.

[🇸🇳 Senegal](/jurisdictions/senegal/) Medium

Online regulation anticipated

Rising mobile use may trigger new online rules, changing the grey-market calculus.

[🇸🇰 Slovakia](/jurisdictions/slovakia/) Medium

Full Gambling Act review recommended

Regulatory uncertainty over framework stability.

[🇸🇰 Slovakia](/jurisdictions/slovakia/) Medium

Coalition instability over tax policy

Political volatility affecting reform trajectory.

[🇸🇰 Slovakia](/jurisdictions/slovakia/) Medium

Tax shortfall political scrutiny (EUR 24bn wagers vs EUR 340m tax)

Risk of upward tax revision.

[🇻🇳 Socialist Republic of Vietnam](/jurisdictions/vietnam/) Medium

Reliance on dormant Decree 06/2017 betting pilot

Effective market access is negligible; scope limited and capped.

[🇻🇳 Socialist Republic of Vietnam](/jurisdictions/vietnam/) Medium

Assuming imminent online liberalisation

Direction is mixed; online further tightened in 2024.

[🇿🇦 South Africa](/jurisdictions/south-africa/) Medium

Political instability of reform vehicle

Bill is a private member's bill subject to committee delay

[South Dakota](/jurisdictions/south-dakota/) Medium

Reliance on SJR 504 passing in November 2026

Two prior similar constitutional amendments failed in the House amid tribal-compact concerns

[🇪🇸 Spain](/jurisdictions/spain/) Medium

Relying on 2024 advertising relaxation as permanent

Draft Ley 13/2011 amendment seeks to restore annulled restrictions.

[🇪🇸 Spain](/jurisdictions/spain/) Medium

Opening retail shops without autonomous-community approval

Land-based outlets require regional approval.

[🇱🇰 Sri Lanka](/jurisdictions/sri-lanka/) Medium

Reliance on unpublished GRA secondary rules

Technical standards and fee schedules not yet finalised — planning risk.

[🇹🇿 Tanzania](/jurisdictions/tanzania/) Medium

Political pressure to raise GGR tax

Fiscal risk to P&L.

[Texas](/jurisdictions/texas/) Medium

Assuming near-term legalization based on Governor's public statements alone

Senate leadership opposition has blocked every resolution since 2020 despite gubernatorial support

[🇹🇭 Thailand](/jurisdictions/thailand/) Medium

Parliament dissolved Dec 2025

Caretaker government froze all gambling policy decisions.

[🇹🇭 Thailand](/jurisdictions/thailand/) Medium

Religious/conservative opposition

Material political headwind to any casino legalisation.

[🇹🇭 Thailand](/jurisdictions/thailand/) Medium

Senate institutional resistance

Even with House support, Senate passage uncertain.

[🇺🇬 Uganda](/jurisdictions/uganda/) Medium

Tightening regulatory direction

Higher taxes and possible advertising curbs ahead.

[🇺🇬 Uganda](/jurisdictions/uganda/) Medium

Regional precedent for player-side levies (Kenya, Nigeria)

Signals further player-side taxation likely.

[🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates — federal jurisdiction (GCGRA framework)](/jurisdictions/united-arab-emirates/) Medium

GCGRA leadership transition

Ciarán Carruthers appointed permanent GCGRA CEO succeeding Kevin Mullally (following Chairman Jim Murren's interim tenure); leadership transition adds near-term licensing-cadence and policy-timing sensitivity.

[🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates — federal jurisdiction (GCGRA framework)](/jurisdictions/united-arab-emirates/) Medium

Assuming fast B2C entry

B2C rules under development; timeline highly uncertain.

[🇺🇾 Uruguay](/jurisdictions/uruguay/) Medium

Reform direction uncertain (mixed)

State-control vs liberalisation split makes private licensing prospects unpredictable.

[🇺🇾 Uruguay](/jurisdictions/uruguay/) Medium

Pending new unified regulator

Proposed National Agency would consolidate authority — regulatory transition risk.

[🇺🇾 Uruguay](/jurisdictions/uruguay/) Medium

Prior 2021 bill failed in Chamber of Deputies

Legislative history shows reform can stall despite Senate passage.

[🇺🇾 Uruguay](/jurisdictions/uruguay/) Medium

Digital bettor registry would mandate registration

All online bettors would have to register, with financial traceability.

[🇻🇺 Vanuatu](/jurisdictions/vanuatu/) Medium

Trade press reports a 2024 relaunch of the interactive gaming licence; no official DCIR instrument evidencing this was located.

Market-entry decisions based on the reported relaunch cannot currently be grounded in a verifiable primary source.

[🇻🇪 Venezuela](/jurisdictions/venezuela/) Medium

No reform pathway under current government

Improvement contingent on political transition.

[Vermont](/jurisdictions/vermont/) Medium

Prediction market restriction bill under discussion

Could reshape adjacent product category (Kalshi/PrizePicks-style contracts) with limited notice

[Virginia — State](/jurisdictions/virginia/) Medium

Assuming iGaming launch before 2028

Reenactment clause delays earliest launch.

[West Virginia — State](/jurisdictions/west-virginia/) Medium

Reform direction mixed

Product liberalisation (fixed-odds racing) coupled with tax-tightening creates uncertainty.

[Wisconsin](/jurisdictions/wisconsin/) Medium

Gubernatorial transition (Evers term ends Jan 2027) mid-compact-negotiation

Compact amendments require gubernatorial approval; a change in administration could reset or delay negotiations.

[🇿🇲 Zambia](/jurisdictions/zambia/) Medium

Cabinet-approved modernisation bill

Pending framework overhaul could reshape licensing categories and obligations.

[🇿🇲 Zambia](/jurisdictions/zambia/) Medium

Regulator restructure (National Gaming and Lottery Board)

Transitional regulatory authority creates supervisory uncertainty.

[🇦🇹 Austria](/jurisdictions/austria/) Low

EU notification required for any reform

Adds delay and challenge risk to market opening.

[🇧🇪 Belgium](/jurisdictions/belgium/) Low

EU internal-market latent risk

Land-based anchor may face Commission scrutiny.

[🇧🇬 Bulgaria](/jurisdictions/bulgaria/) Low

Ignoring euro accession 2026

Currency/payment rail change.

[🇨🇲 Cameroon](/jurisdictions/cameroon/) Low

No active liberalising reform

Limited near-term clarity improvement on online licensing.

[Canada — Ontario](/jurisdictions/ontario/) Low

Federal advertising legislation

Possible national advertising restrictions could override provincial standards.

[Canada — Ontario](/jurisdictions/ontario/) Low

Assuming static framework

Incremental tightening on advertising/RG ongoing; CSE and CGA code new in 2026.

[Colorado — State](/jurisdictions/colorado/) Low

Treating market as growth-stage

Market is mature with stable growth, not greenfield expansion.

[Connecticut — State](/jurisdictions/connecticut/) Low

No expansion momentum

Tribes have no incentive to dilute the duopoly.

[Connecticut — State](/jurisdictions/connecticut/) Low

NY/MA competitive pressure

Adjacent larger markets pull cross-border demand.

[Connecticut — State](/jurisdictions/connecticut/) Low

Live dealer individual licensing

Live online casino dealers require individual state licences since 2023.

[🇩🇴 Dominican Republic](/jurisdictions/dominican-republic/) Low

DCJA fraud-history controversy

Institutional credibility concerns flagged in reform debate.

[🇬🇭 Ghana](/jurisdictions/ghana/) Low

GCG capacity still developing

Sparser enforcement documentation; lower predictability.

[Illinois — State](/jurisdictions/illinois/) Low

Retail handle decline

Retail sports betting handle at multi-year lows.

[🇯🇵 Japan](/jurisdictions/japan/) Low

Treating sports-betting liberalisation as imminent

Discussions exist but strong opposition remains; no enacted reform.

[🇰🇪 Kenya](/jurisdictions/kenya/) Low

Successor authority (GRA) leadership still being appointed

Institutional capacity uncertainty during handover.

[🇱🇹 Lithuania](/jurisdictions/lithuania/) Low

Pending land-based GGR tax bill (18%)

Further fiscal change for combined operators.

[🇲🇴 Macau SAR (Macau Special Administrative Region, China)](/jurisdictions/macau/) Low

Horse-racing concession ended

MJC surrender from 1 April 2024

[🇲🇴 Macau SAR (Macau Special Administrative Region, China)](/jurisdictions/macau/) Low

New Chief Executive since Dec 2024

Policy continuity uncertainty

[🇲🇹 Malta](/jurisdictions/malta/) Low

6+ month application timeline

Delayed time-to-revenue.

[Maryland — State](/jurisdictions/maryland/) Low

Repeal bill (SB 1033) filed 2025

Tail risk of legislative pushback against online wagering.

[Maryland — State](/jurisdictions/maryland/) Low

$1.5bn state budget shortfall

Fiscal pressure could drive higher tax rates or iGaming push.

[Maryland — State](/jurisdictions/maryland/) Low

iGaming max 55% tax floated in past bills

Any future iGaming may carry punitive tax.

[Michigan — State](/jurisdictions/michigan/) Low

Ignoring December 2025 MGCB rule review

Pending rule changes may alter compliance and tax obligations.

[🇲🇦 Morocco](/jurisdictions/morocco/) Low

2026 minor-protection draft laws

Tightening trajectory on access/age controls.

[New Brunswick (Canada)](/jurisdictions/new-brunswick/) Low

Relying on Ontario model precedent for NB timing

No causal link to NB reform.

[North Carolina — State](/jurisdictions/north-carolina/) Low

Operator exit (Underdog) within 21 months of launch

Signals competitive shakeout risk for marginal entrants.

[North Carolina — State](/jurisdictions/north-carolina/) Low

Online horse racing authorised but not launched

Authorised product remains operationally dormant.

[North Carolina — State](/jurisdictions/north-carolina/) Low

Hold-rate volatility driving variable tax outcomes

GGR/tax swings complicate revenue planning.

[North Carolina — State](/jurisdictions/north-carolina/) Low

Tax revenue <1% of state budget yet politically salient

Low fiscal weight but high targeting risk for rate hikes.

[Ohio — State](/jurisdictions/ohio/) Low

Reliance on iGaming legalisation timing

HB 298 paused; no firm timeline.

[🇰🇷 Republic of Korea (South Korea)](/jurisdictions/south-korea/) Low

Assuming liberalisation

Government not prioritising reform.

[🇷🇼 Rwanda](/jurisdictions/rwanda/) Low

Reform timeline uncertainty

No firm date for new gambling law; planning horizon unclear.

[🇿🇦 South Africa](/jurisdictions/south-africa/) Low

Bill consumer-protection gaps

Lobby pressure may delay or reshape the Remote Gambling Bill

[🇱🇰 Sri Lanka](/jurisdictions/sri-lanka/) Low

Socio-religious opposition to gambling expansion

Buddhist-majority political resistance could constrain future liberalisation.

[🇹🇿 Tanzania](/jurisdictions/tanzania/) Low

Cashless-gaming transition

Future operational re-engineering.

[🇺🇬 Uganda](/jurisdictions/uganda/) Low

Ministry of Finance oversight of NLGRB

Political-interference risk in licensing/enforcement.

[🇺🇸 United States (Federal Layer)](/jurisdictions/united-states/) Low

Banking on near-term federal iGaming legalisation

Federal iGaming bills are introduced repeatedly but unlikely to pass.

SRC-US-002

[🇻🇪 Venezuela](/jurisdictions/venezuela/) Low

SENAJU misidentified as gambling regulator

Mis-engaging the wrong body wastes effort; CNC/SUNAHIP are correct.

[West Virginia — State](/jurisdictions/west-virginia/) Low

Operator exits (WynnBET-type)

Marginal operators may exit a small market under fee/tax pressure.

[West Virginia — State](/jurisdictions/west-virginia/) Low

Fixed-odds racing expansion (SB 576)

New product set creates compliance and purse-fund obligations.