Outlook: What is coming?

Congress extended the amendment-filing deadline for Medida Provisória nº 1,394/2026 to 13 October 2026, with approximately 59 amendments filed by that date, including football-club lobbying for a transition extended to 31 December 2026 rather than an outright reversal of the prohibition. The joint committee reviewing the Measure has up to 120 days from its 25 September 2026 publication to complete its work. Separately, the Supremo Tribunal Federal has not yet ruled on pending constitutionality challenges brought by ANJL, IBJR, Anseja and Abert; the Advocacia-Geral da União has asked the Court to await the Procuradoria-Geral da República and keep the ban in force meanwhile, with commentary expecting a ruling only after the 25 October presidential run-off. Both the legislative conversion process and the constitutional challenge remain genuinely open.

Congress must deliberate MP 1.394/2026 by 23 November 2026, within an initial 60-day window extendable by a further 60 days to 120 days total from the 25 September 2026 publication date. The deadline for filing amendments was extended from 1 to 13 October 2026, and more than 40 amendments had been filed by the earlier date, with some seeking to preserve sports betting while concentrating the prohibition on online casino and slots. In parallel, the Supremo Tribunal Federal designated Justice Luiz Fux as rapporteur for three consolidated actions, ADIs 7721, 7723 and 7749, against the MP; no injunction had been granted as of 7 October 2026. Both the congressional timetable and the STF litigation are live and could materially change the market's status before year end.

Three live uncertainties will determine whether Brazil's fixed-odds betting prohibition holds. First, the Supremo Tribunal Federal has not yet ruled on the suspension petition filed by the Associacao Nacional de Jogos e Loterias and the Instituto Brasileiro de Jogo Responsavel on 28 September 2026. Second, the National Congress has not yet completed its conversion process on Medida Provisoria 1.394/2026, and the instrument's durability remains provisional pending that process within its constitutional window. Third, there are separate reports raising the possibility that the Ministry of Finance could abolish the Secretaria de Premios e Apostas itself, which would bear on administrative capacity to oversee any eventual regime. None of these three processes has resolved as at this cycle.

The SPA's 45-day commercial-authorisation consultation closed on 9 September 2026, and the resulting permanent ordinance for fixed-odds operators is the most immediate item on the reform horizon, though it has not yet been issued. A second licensing window is reported to be expected in Q4 2026, potentially expanding the authorised operator count above 100, but this has not been confirmed against a primary SPA notice and remains provisional. These pending milestones, taken together, indicate a regime actively moving from its transitional posture toward a permanent framework, with the precise shape of that framework still to be settled through the consultation outcome and any confirmed second licensing window.

PL 5.153/2026, filed at the Mesa of the Câmara dos Deputados on 24 August 2026, is the dominant reform-horizon development this cycle and represents an existential threat to the licensed regime rather than an incremental adjustment. The bill would repeal Lei 14.790/2023 in full, extinguish every existing federal authorisation within 180 days regardless of its stated term, and criminalise the operation of fixed-odds betting with penalties of two to five years' imprisonment plus a fine. Trade press attributes the bill's timing partly to electoral positioning ahead of the 4 October 2026 general election, suggesting its ultimate trajectory may be shaped as much by electoral politics as by regulatory substance. This sits in direct tension with SPA's own enforcement conduct this cycle — precautionary suspensions, new financial-liability instruments, and expanded account-freezing powers — all of which represent investments consistent with an expectation that the licensed regime will continue. The near-term outlook for operators is therefore genuinely bifurcated: continuity is the base case implied by regulatory behaviour, but the repeal bill introduces a live tail risk that resolves only as the bill progresses through the legislature and the election cycle concludes.

Two parallel SPA consultations are running through the third quarter of 2026: one to rewrite the betting-authorisation decree currently under Ordinance 827/2024, and a separate forty-five day process to set permanent commercial-authorisation rules for fixed-odds operators. Both aim to move Brazil's licensing regime from its current transitional, rolling-authorisation state toward a settled permanent framework. Progress on this reform agenda depends materially on SPA's own institutional capacity, which the Federal Court of Accounts formally criticised as under-resourced through 2025 and into early 2026, though capacity is reported to be improving in the first quarter of 2026. Until the two consultations conclude, operators and applicants face a licensing and authorisation framework that remains actively in flux rather than settled.